Most Likely Bug Out Scenarios to Head for the Hills!

As any prepper knows, there are many different scenarios and variables that will require that you bug out or bug in. In the case of a bug out, it’s more complicated to prep for because you need a plan that is way more complex and that deals with lots of variables that don’t happen when you’re just bugging in.

The best thing you can do is obviously prep. This is why it’s so important to have a plan for all the major possibilities of bug out scenarios. To help you with that, I did my research on the most likely bug out scenarios. According to research the most likely bug out scenarios are floods, hurricanes, wildfires, nuclear attacks, riots, earthquakes, running out of resources, and terrorism.

Just remember that you shouldn’t have only one plan for all the scenarios above. The best prepper has plan B, C, D, E, and F. Natural disasters will require not only a different plan but also different skills set than a nuclear incident or attack. So, the best way to make sure you survive, it’s to plan accordingly. After all, bug out scenarios are dangerous just for the fact that everyone is trying to leave at once.

Just think about what happens when a closed space is on fire and everybody tries to leave at the same time in panic. More common than not, people die from other reasons other the fire itself. Nevertheless, you want to have a survival plan that prepares you for any disaster scenario. Click here for a plan that will get you prepared in the most effective way.


Flood is one of the most common reasons people are forced to leave their houses. For one, floods are dangerous if you take too much time to evacuate or, again, if everyone is trying to hit the road at the same time.

The best you can do here is to follow the radio broadcast to be well informed of when is best to leave and if it is necessary at all. A lot of the flood incidents that happen in the U.S are caused by a hurricane or other major storms.

If you live near a river or the sea, you’re more likely to need to evacuate. In this case, your best option might be to go to another city that is out of the flood’s range. Going to the mountains may not be a good idea due to soil instability.

In case of floods, even if you don’t need to leave but is near enough to be affected by some other problems caused by the flood, it’s a good idea to have resources. For example, water sources are usually contaminated in these situations for a few days. Also, going out to buy food may not be a good idea. Floods usually cause problems to the power grid leaving people without energy for a few days and sometimes even a few weeks. So, it’s a great idea to have batteries and any other power sources available.

Once you have a plan for the possibility of floods, it’s time to check the boxes for the next bug out scenarios. The more you prep, the safer you are. Just remember to check if you have all the equipment and to constantly do the maintenance part, including your vehicle.


Hurricanes can be real nightmares. They not only cause mass destruction but the repercussions afterward are equally devastating. In Florida, this is one of the most common reasons people are forced to leave their houses.

If you live in a place like that, or even if you just want to be prepared for everything, you must prep for hurricanes. Again, in this case, you should be tuning in to the radio broadcast to have a better assessment of your situation. Still, it’s important to point out that you shouldn’t rely solely on that to make your decision to bug out.

In the case of hurricanes, you should have a place that is outside the zones that will be affected and leave early. If you wait too long to leave, what happens is that you’re going to stay stuck in traffic and way more vulnerable.

Remember that people usually leave things to the last minute, which in turn makes matters worse since everyone is panicking, trying to save their own lives. The best you can always do in any bug out situation is leave early or leave after everybody if that’s an option.

Most of the time everyone tries to leave at the same time and using the same methods. This overcrowds airports and highways, which creates chaos. This is why you should never leave when everybody is also doing it if it’s an option.

So, your plan for hurricanes should be somewhat basic. Pick a vehicle, have water and food, and a destination. If you can, don’t choose highways and to leave at the same time as everyone else. If you do this, you’ll already have a better plan than 99% of people.


Wildfires are one of the cases that you have no choice but to leave. This is one of the most unfortunate situations because there’s a good chance that when you come back, there’s no house at all for you to come back to. Since wildfires are common knowledge in the places where they happen every year, there’s no reason not to prep for that if you live in one of these places.

You should have a bag with important things that you must carry with you to save from the fire. This way, depending on how urgent it is that you leave immediately, you don’t have to leave anything behind or dangerously stall your departure.

In the case of wildfires, the best thing is to have a safe location ready for you at all times. You can also have a network of family and friends where you can go to if you need. The secret is to have this place determined way before anything even happens. This way, you don’t need to waste any time deciding on which place is better for your case.

As always, the plan is to leave earlier. In the case of wildfires, it’s never a good idea to wait. So, if you didn’t leave earlier do it along with everyone else. Have your important possessions ready to be transported and natural resources for the journey.

A good tip is to always pick vehicles that have enough space to store your personal things, resources, and equipment, but that is also not too big that will slow you down. If you follow this tip, you shouldn’t have any problems during your bug out.

Nuclear Attack

This is a major concern even to people who do not consider themselves “preppers”. If someone were to launch nukes it would most likely be a lose-lose situation, although this might not always be the case. While I wouldn’t want to suffer a slow agonizing death from nuclear fallout, there will be situations where survival is feasible.

At the very least is good to know what your options are, know what to expect, and do what you can to prepare yourself for a nuclear strike. I don’t think a nuclear war would kill everyone on the planet, and if someone is going to survive, it might as well be preppers. Although most countries who have nukes seem to hate the United States, which makes things a bit tough.

When you are a target, a big one, in this case, it’s hard to escape unharmed. Still, with the number of bunkers and other options to protect oneself from nuclear attacks, you might have a chance at survival. You need a place that can protect you from the radiation and that you have enough space to store your resources.

A nuclear attack is, perhaps, the worst possible bug out scenario because it’s the one that would cause the most chaos. People have no real idea of what a nuclear attack can cause. The power of destruction is so great that people that survive would likely experience PTSD. Other people would probably go nuts, making the roads very unsafe.

The best you can do here is, again, to have a destination that checks all the security boxes for a nuclear attack for you to go to. Now, you must prep beforehand since you won’t be able to find a place afterward.


This would be a secondary event that would be caused by a number of different initial events. We have all seen the riots and “protests” recently, and it wouldn’t take much for these to escalate. With the growing divide in this country, it’s only a matter of time before it all comes to a head.

We also need to consider civil unrest in an SHTF type scenario. When people are faced with a crisis, they become both unpredictable, and very predictable at the same time. People will do whatever it takes to survive, even if it means stealing and killing to get it. Besides people would use some crazy logic just to tell themselves that it’s okay to do whatever it is they’re doing.

The truth is that no matter what your political views are, in an SHTF scenario people won’t care what color you vote. If you have any resources they want, they will do whatever it takes to get it.

This is one of the most dangerous and scariest scenarios because, in moments like this, people throw the law in the garbage and start acting like social norms, rules, and laws don’t apply anymore. Chaos begins and anywhere with a human-being becomes life-threatening.

In a situation like this, you should avoid the highway and go to inhabited places. If the latter is not entirely possible, look for places that have the fewest number of people around.

So, the best you can do is avoid populated places and be aware that anyone can be a threat. Therefore, prep for every possibility to make sure that you’re safe in every situation.


Earthquakes have the potential to be the worst disaster that can happen. Depending on the magnitude, the destruction that can cause is just too terrible. Buildings would fall down, the ground would open, many lives would be lost.

On top of that, to make things worse, after the earthquake, a tsunami may rise. As you can already imagine, it’d be chaotic. Unfortunately, current technology is not fast enough to predict an earthquake early enough to give people time to evacuate.

In this case, the best you can do is to have a plan for this situation as well. How to protect yourself inside of your house and what to no next to leave. Places near the beach or near the mountains are the most dangerous because of the risk of tsunamis and avalanches afterward.

West coast is a very likely scenario in which something like this could happen. So, a good tip would be to assess your current location. Depending on the probability of an earthquake happening in your city, you should prep as best as you can for this scenario as well.

Now, if it’s unlikely, it’s still good to have some idea since we never know, but you don’t need to go overboard and spend money that could be used for other more realistic situations.

So, have your resources and escape plan that involves an escape route, vehicle, and destination. Once you have everything in place, you can relax about this bug out scenario as well.

Remember that an earthquake is one of the worst situations because it’s really hard to survive if you’re in the middle of it and it’s hard to leave town.

Running Out of Resources

Even if you are in the middle of the scenario in which there’s no need for you to bug out, certain circumstances may still force you to do it. The most common one is running out of resources. For example, if your water storage and stockpiled food run out and you don’t have a warehouse or grocery store to go to, you may have to bug out.

In this case, you should gather all the remaining resources and had to somewhere that you can have access to them. A good tip is to go to a place that you’re guaranteed to find water and food. For example, the woods.

If you have the skills to survive there, you won’t likely be bothered and won’t have to compete for whatever is left on the shelves of the supermarket. Obviously, you should only go to the mountains or the woods if you have survival skills. Otherwise, you would just be making sure you die faster.

So, remember to gather the remaining resources and head to a place that you can guarantee to find water and food. You should also make sure you have fuel for the vehicle and depending on the season and your location, everything necessary to survive the weather.


In the ’70s and ’80s, terrorism was hijacking airplanes. That all changed on September 11th, 2001 when terrorists successfully attacked the U.S. on the largest scale ever. Today, unfortunately, terrorism is a reality that everyone should be prepared for. Normally, a terrorist attack is not likely to happen and even if it does the goal is way more to generate fear propaganda than to cause actual damage. This means that a terrorist attack has the goal of causing terror and fear in the population.

This decreases people’s perception of safety. In reality, these terrorist attacks aren’t enough to cause an SHTF situation. Still, things could escalate.

What’s the next step that terrorists could take? With everything becoming more dependent on the internet and technology, it seems likely that the next step is a cyber terrorism on a very large scale. This is the moment things can become massively scary.

Nowadays, everything is dependent on a system that is somewhat connected to the internet. If you shut down some of these systems, you can have major consequences. Airplanes would fall from the sky or even crash into each other if their system went out.

Imagine what would happen to the economic market if the Down Jones system stopped working due to an attack. It’d take days, maybe even more time, for everything to go back to normal.

What this all means is that any attack on a major system nowadays would cause at the very least collective hysteria ensuing chaos. In the worst scenarios, you could see airplanes falling from the sky, car crashes due to traffic monitoring being down, and ambulances not being able to help people because their system is also down.

Final Thoughts

These are the most likely bug out scenarios. The best you can do is prepare for each one of them. That’s how you survive. As you may have noticed, some of the strategies intertwine and some of them are completely different. They require different resources, plan, and skill set for you to make it.

Still, the secret here is to prep. As long as you have the resources, the means, and the destination, you can make a safe exit. Now, the best you can do is to make a list of everything you need, including your plan to prepare for everything. For those wanting an effective survival plan to get you prepared the right way, click here.

Recent Posts